The clues I'll be looking out for tonightpublished at 23:34 GMT 3 November
Daniel Bush
Washington correspondent
Image source, Getty ImagesCan Republicans hold the Trump coalition together?
One of the defining features of the Trump era is the Republican Party's struggle with turnout when Donald Trump isn't on the ballot.
As election night is now truly under way, I'll be watching out to see how Republicans fare with some of the key voting blocs that Trump made gains with in 2024, including Latinos and women.
If Republicans can't hold the Trump coalition together, they'll likely suffer big losses on Tuesday - and that would be a warning sign going into 2028.
On the Democratic side, the reverse is true: if the party can win back its traditional share of the Latino vote while running up the numbers with women and college-educated voters, that would bode well for their chances in the next presidential election.
Political coalitions evolve over time, and there’s only so much we can read into the results and exit polls from a midterm election, when voter turnout is typically down.
But as the night goes on, I’ll be on the lookout for clues that can give us a sense of where both parties are headed over the next two years.
























