Monthly Outlook

Very unsettled weather will impact the UK through to early next week, with bouts of heavy rain and occasionally very strong winds, especially on Thursday night and Friday.

As next week progresses low pressure systems may take a more northerly track. Although associated frontal systems should still affect the UK, there could be longer drier spells in between, especially in the south and east, with northern and western regions perhaps staying wetter.

A drier trend may develop by early November as high pressure becomes more prominent at times, but wetter conditions could return by the middle of the month.

Very wet and windy at times

The weather for the rest of this week will be very disturbed. Rain will clear eastwards by the end of Wednesday, with drier and less windy conditions following overnight and into Thursday as a ridge of high pressure crosses the UK. However, rain should return to at least southwestern areas by evening.

This will be the precursor to Storm Austen, an intensifying low pressure system whose centre should pass over or close to the southern UK during Friday. Rain, occasionally heavy, will spread across all areas while winds strengthen, especially across England and Wales and particularly the south.

Gales are likely, and wind gusts could reach 60-65mph, most probably in parts of the far south. Winds won't be as strong across Scotland and Northern Ireland but it will be a cooler day with highs of just 6-10C in the far north.

Winds will ease overnight and into Saturday morning as rain clears east and a transient high pressure ridge follows from the west. This is likely to be a brief respite, however, with another Atlantic frontal system racing in through Saturday afternoon and evening. This should bring further heavy rain and strong winds, potentially gale force in places.

Rain will clear eastwards to leave a brighter but changeable day on Sunday, with occasional sunshine but a scattering of heavy and blustery showers, driven across on stiff winds. Some more persistent rain is possible as well, especially in northern regions.

Wetter in the north & west than south & east

Late October and the start of November may see higher pressure than normal across Europe and perhaps into at least the southern UK, with low pressure systems from the Atlantic still getting pushed farther north, towards Iceland or between Iceland and Scotland. As a result, the western and northern UK should be wetter than normal as associated frontal systems pass through, with occasionally strong winds.

Although rain could still reach the south and east, fronts should weaken as they run into the higher pressure to the south. As winds should primarily tend to come from the west to south-west, temperatures should be near or above the seasonal average with brief cooler interludes.

However, models diverge somewhat, and there is a chance that European high pressure could be weaker. This would allow low pressure systems to come closer to the UK and bring more widespread wet and windy conditions. Nevertheless, much of England and Wales should be relatively mild, with the north closer to average overall, having some cooler days in between weather systems.

Temporarily settled before changeability returns

There is disagreement on the pressure pattern for the first full week of November. High pressure over mainland Europe could also build across the UK, leading to a more settled and drier week of weather, especially across England and Wales. Northern Ireland and Scotland could be more susceptible to occasional rainfall. Temperatures should be near the November average but with some chilly and potentially frosty and foggy nights when conditions are clear and calm.

However, there is an alternative scenario in which high pressure is weaker or shifted farther west, allowing greater chances of rain across the whole of the UK. Temperatures would still be most likely to pan out near normal overall but with risks of some colder days if high pressure settles to the west and induces more north to northwesterly flows.

By mid-November, however, model outlooks are more aligned, with high pressure over continental Europe and towards the east and north-east. This should mean a greater amount of low pressure and frontal activity near or across the UK, so conditions should become more widely wetter and occasionally windy. Temperatures are more likely to be near or above normal than below.

Unusually, confidence is a little higher in the broad signal for this week than for early November, but timing and regional detail remain uncertain. There is a low-probability alternative in which high pressure extends from mainland Europe towards the UK, delivering further drier and calmer weather for a while longer

On Friday the new outlook will extend beyond mid-November, and we will see if there are still signs of more unsettled weather returning after a quieter period in early November.