Why another Wigan by-election is being watched closely by political experts

Working away at the community garden at Top Er't Sands in Hindley Green, Wigan, Chris Astbury says she is "by-electioned out".

Hindley Green was, back in the summer, one of a number of wards in the Makerfield constituency that went to the polls in what was one of the most closely watched parliamentary by-elections of modern times.

And the contest that returned Andy Burnham to Parliament was also arguably one of the most significant, given that within weeks he became prime minister.

Still, Christine says she will be going to the polls again.

"I'll be there on Thursday because it's vital we have our say," she says.

And while the by-election may not have have the far-reaching implications of the one in the summer, experts say it will be watched keenly beyond the Wigan boundary.

For the last 20 years, seats in Hindley Green have mostly been won or held by Labour or independent councillors.

But, as it swept the board in May, Reform took one of the Hindley Green Labour seats.

It currently holds 25 of the 75 seats on the council. And if puts in a similar performance the next time a third of the councils seats are up, Wigan would become the first Reform-controlled authority in Greater Manchester.

But the leader of the 38-strong Labour group, Nazia Rahman, is hoping that Burnham's June victory will help the party to win Hindley Green back.

She said: "We don't want to take any vote for granted, but we are working really hard.

"We are running a very positive campaign and we have a very strong local candidate.

"So we are hoping that the results will be positive for Labour Party and it will set the tone for the next year's elections.

"After Andy, I think people can see that message of hope so we are seeing a lot of positivity on the doorstep."

Reform won Hindley Green in May with 1,878 votes. Labour came second with 1,172, and the Greens finished third on 258.

Paul Watson, the Reform group leader in Wigan, is confident his party will take it again.

He said: "I think a week's a long time in politics, but it will be a significant indicator of the mood of the people of Makerfield in particular Hindley Green.

"I'm quite optimistic about this by-election because, looking at the data, if our voters come out we're going to absolutely smash Labour.

"And that will really bloody the nose for the reputation of the prime minister."

Professor Jon Tonge, a politics expert at Liverpool University believes it is a by-election political strategists will be watching.

He said: "Given that the seat fell to Reform only last May and Reform won more than 50% of the vote in Hindley Green, it'll be a measure of how far Labour has come up under Burnham and how far Reform might have come down given Nigel Farage's difficulties.

"So in that sense, this contest does matter.

"It has much bigger significance than the relatively small electorate that is there in Hindley Green."

But some residents in Hindley Green believe the man whose death prompted the contest, independent Bob Brierley, will be a hard act to follow.

He held the seat for 22 years.

Christine McFadian said: "He used to cut the football field for the young kids to play on, and all the verges further down the road.

"He was like the busiest councillor ever. He was a great guy and it's very sad to lose him."

Currently, Labour holds 38 seats, Reform UK has 25, there are 11 independents, and there is the Hindley Green vacancy.

The full list of candidates standing in the Hindley Green by-election is:

Burley, David John – Liberal Democrat

Clarke, Bonnie – Reform UK

Jackson, Daniel James – Conservative

Prescott, Mark – Independent

Shepherd, Rebecca Lee – Restore Britain

Smith, Nat – Green

Vickers, John Melville – Labour

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