New body will look at case for Welsh independence, and more devolution

The case for Welsh independence, as well as more devolution for Cardiff Bay, will be considered by a new body set-up by the Plaid Cymru Welsh government.

A National Commission for Wales will provide "advice, evidence and analysis" on the country's constitutional future, the Cardiff administration said.

The minister in charge announced on Tuesday it will be led by two chairs - a former ambassador to France and an academic expert on constitutional law.

Constitution Minister Dafydd Trystan Davies said the commission would cost "in the ballpark" of £500,000 a year.

Reform said the commission was a waste of time and money.

Plaid Cymru had made a manifesto pledge to establish the commission at the May election.

It has ruled out trying to hold an independence referendum this term, due to end in 2030, but has suggested if it was reelected it may make the case for independence in a white paper.

It is not the first commission that has looked at the powers of Wales' devolved bodies - previous exercises included the Silk commission of the early 2010s, a commission on how justice operates which published in 2019, and a commission in 2024 which concluded that independence was a viable option.

The latter work said outside of the UK Wales would face a "significant" short to medium term challenge raising enough tax revenue for public services.

It is not clear when the commission would report. The constitution minister said it would also look at the responsibilities of local government.

The Welsh government is coming under pressure from Andy Burnham's Labour Westminster administration to devolve more to the regions of Wales.

The new commission would not exclusively examine the prospect of Wales being a sovereign state, but it would be one of three "viable options" considered.

These also include enhanced devolution and a federal United Kingdom - the idea of a UK where each home nation has much more power over their own affairs while Westminster retains overall powers on things matters such as defence.

According to the Welsh government, the "independent standing body" will provide "independent advice on devolution priorities, including areas such as the "Crown Estate, rail infrastructure, justice and policing".

The Welsh government is pressing Westminster for all four to be devolved to the Senedd and Welsh ministers.

The Welsh government said the commission will talk to people from across Wales, and would conduct research "on key political, economic and democratic questions relevant to Wales' future".

The commission will be chaired by Dame Menna Rawlings, and Professor Emyr Lewis.

Rawlings has previously served as ambassador to France and the British High Commissioner to Australia. Lewis is an emeritus professor at Aberyswyth University with experience in constitutional law. The poet also won the Eisteddfod Chair for a second time in 2026.

Lewis told the BBC there was "no pressure" on the commission.

"Menna Rawlings and I are very used to providing independent advice. We're not campaigners, we're advisers.

"We're not here to wave the flag for any conclusion or solution. We're here to do a job of work, to advise the government."

Dayfdd Trystan Davies said: "The way the United Kingdom is structured and governed is under increasing strain, and debates about devolution, accountability and where decisions should be made are increasingly pressing."

In the Senedd on Tuesday afternoon, Davies said the commission "will also consider the balance of responsibilities across different levels of government in Wales, including the scope to transfer further responsibilities to regional or local levels".

Appearing to acknowledge Labour's push for more devolution to the regions, Davies said he was sure "others in this Senedd will welcome" that agenda.

He added: "Decisions should sit at the level where they can be exercised most effectively - national, regional or local - recognising the distinct democratic roles and responsibilities of Welsh government, the Senedd and local government, and supporting greater coherence between the tiers of government."

Rob Hughes, chair of the pro-independence organisation YesCymru, told BBC Radio Wales Breakfast the commission is "one step forward to achieve what we want to achieve, which is an independent Wales".

"We believe fully that an independent Wales will lead to a better future for the people of Wales, and put us in a better position to be able to address some of the issues that people are facing."

He said: "Realistically, if we add a referendum tomorrow, we're not winning it. So we need to build the argument." He said YesCymru was "looking" at a referendum for 2032.

Reform's Welsh leader Helen Jenner said voters "do not want to see Wales ripped out of the United Kingdom" and said the commission was "ridiculous".

"They voted for pro-UK parties in the Senedd elections."

"We want the Welsh government to be getting on with the day job, to improving our public services, improving our educational outcomes, sorting out the NHS and not faffing around with constitutional issues."

In the Senedd chamber, Labour's Huw Thomas gave a cautious welcome to the exercise, although he said: "This is another week and another commission being established."

Thomas said he welcomed "the inclusion of exploring regional and local devolution in the commission's remit".

But he asked for a clarification from Davies that independence was off the table for the Senedd term. Davies said it remained the position that no referendum would happen this term.

Welsh Conservative Senedd leader Darren Millar earned a round of desk banging from Reform MSs in support as he attacked the establishment of the commission.

He suggested the Senedd had become "accustomed" to a "sort of constitutional merry-go-round", and predicted the commission would call for more powers.

Milar demanded the first minister invest instead in the "people's priorities" and pull his "finger out" to fix the NHS, before accusing him of seeking a "power grab for more and more."