Schools face tough choices as birth rate falls

At Yeadon Primary School in Leeds, head teacher Dawn Lawry has a simple way of explaining the challenge it faces.

"We have 30 children coming into reception, but we have 60 going out in Year 6 so it doesn't take a genius to do the maths," she says.

"Those numbers are dropping and by January 2029 we will be a one-form entry primary school."

The school was created in September when Westfield Infants and Westfield Juniors merged, following a financial crisis that left the two schools facing a combined projected deficit of £1.6m.

But while bringing the schools together will help address the cost of maintaining two buildings, the falling roll continues to shape decisions about staffing and the future.

"We haven't had to lose teachers, but we have had to lose support staff and it's not nice when you have to go through that," Lawry says.

"We are going to get smaller... we are going to have to look at our staffing, but hopefully in a structured, supportive environment."

The pressure is not confined to Yeadon.

Birth rates have been falling for years, leaving some schools with more places than pupils and less funding to cover their costs.

In the Guiseley, Yeadon and Rawdon area, the number of births fell from 402 in 2016/17 to 258 in 2024/25, according to Leeds City Council.

The National Education Union says the consequences are being felt by staff as schools look to balance their budgets.

Mary Owen, from the union in Leeds, says members are reporting rising workloads due to redundancies.

"Support staff are usually the first to go and that work has to be picked up by somebody," she says.

"We're also seeing huge class sizes (in some schools) because if you have merged classes you have double the amount of children with double the amount of needs."

For teachers, that can mean trying to meet a wider range of needs with fewer colleagues to help.

Sarah Sharp, who has worked at the Yeadon school since it was a busy two-form entry primary, says the cost of living is one of the biggest factors behind local families having fewer children.

"We're in a crisis and I know lots of schools in the area are having the same struggles, but this is one way we can make sure our lovely site can survive and thrive," she says.

Lawry says school staff have even joked about trying to encourage parents to have more children.

"We've thought about giving out Barry White CDs to see if we can help anyone along," she says.

"We joke with parents that they need to bring another one into the world, but they say, 'Oh no, we're done now.'"

She says the school needs to adapt to the changing circumstances to remain financially viable.

The merger means pupils will eventually be taught on one site, with the junior school building on New Road chosen because it has more space for play and sport.

The transition is due to be completed by 2029.

But the future use of the former infants site has not yet been decided.

Leeds City Council says decisions about school provision must take account of the needs of children and the wider community, as well as the cost of maintaining buildings.

Councillor Helen Hayden, executive member for children and families, says there are vacancies across the city, particularly in Reception and Year 1 and 2 classes.

"It's not the buildings that are important; it's the children, the parents, and the whole community around a school," she says.

"If we keep spending money on buildings that are half-empty then children's education will suffer because we won't have the money for teachers and support staff."

In 2026, there are a projected 49,939 four-year-olds across Yorkshire's 11 local authorities.

By 2031, that's projected to fall to 47,583 - a drop of 2,356, or 4.7%.

The fall isn't evenly spread. Doncaster, Rotherham and Kirklees see the steepest drops, while Leeds, Sheffield and York stay broadly flat.

In 2024, the picture was falling primary numbers and rising secondary numbers but this has now turned.

Every authority sees a fall in secondary-aged children by 2036 and over the next decade the drop in secondary pupils (37,000) is larger than the drop in primary (31,000).

Unlike primary, secondary numbers carry on falling through to 2046.

The steepest secondary falls over the next decade are in Calderdale (−17.7%), York (−16.0%) and Bradford (−15.9%).

Sheffield and Wakefield are the least affected.

Councils have their own forecasts, but with pressure on both local and central government budgets there's likely to be a continued effort to close or merge schools with falling rolls.

These numbers suggest secondary schools will increasingly be part of that conversation.

Source: ONS subnational population projections for England