Me ya sa jam'iyyu masu mulki ke faɗuwa zabe a kasashen duniya?

A 'yan shekarun nan, jam'iyyun da suka daɗe suna mulki sun fuskanci babban ƙalubale daga masu zaɓe. Wasu sun rasa mulki, yayin da wasu kuma suka rasa rinjayensu a majalisun dokoki.

Ana danganta hakan da wasu dalilai, ciki har da halin da tattalin arziki ke ciki, tsadar rayuwa da kuma rashin gamsuwar al'umma da shugabanci.

Idan aka yi la'akari da sakamakon zaɓukan da aka gudanar a ƙasashe da dama cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata, tun daga shekarar 2024, mutum zai iya tambayar ko masu zaɓe a faɗin duniya sun fara gajiya da jam'iyyun da suka daɗe suna mulki ne.

Ana iya ganin wannan sauyi daga nahiyar Afirka zuwa Turai da kuma Amurka.

Shin matsin tattalin arziki da hauhawar tsadar rayuwa ne ke ƙara jefa 'yan ƙasa cikin ƙunci? Ko kuwa sun fara gajiya da shugabanni iri ɗaya, alkawuran da ba a cika ba da kuma zarge-zargen cin hanci da rashawa?

Ko kuwa jam'iyyun adawa ne suka fara gabatar da wasu bayanai masu jan hankali ga masu kaɗa ƙuri'a?

Yadda jam'iyyun da suka daɗe suna mulki a Afirka ke ta shan kaye

An ga manyan sauye-sauyen siyasa a wasu ƙasashen Afirka a 2024, inda wasu jam'iyyun da suka daɗe suna mulki suka sha kaye a zaɓe.

A Botswana, jam'iyyar Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), wadda ta riƙe mulki tun bayan samun 'yancin kan ƙasar a shekarar 1966, ta sha kaye a zaɓen ranar 30 ga Oktoba, 2024.

Jam'iyyar BDP, wadda ta shafe shekara 58 tana mulki, ta samu kujeru huɗu kacal a cikin kujeru 61 na majalisar dokokin ƙasar, bayan da take da kujeru 38 a zaɓen da ya gabata.

Haɗakar jam'iyyun adawa ta Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), ƙarƙashin jagorancin Duma Boko, ta lashe kujeru 36, lamarin da ya ba shi damar zama sabon shugaban ƙasar.

A Ghana ma an samu sauyin gwamnati a zaɓen Disamban 2024, inda jam'iyyar mai mulki ta New Patriotic Party (NPP) ta sha kaye a hannun jam'iyyar National Democratic Congress (NDC), ƙarƙashin jagorancin John Dramani Mahama.

Mahama ya koma kan mulki ne bayan ya lashe zaɓen shugaban ƙasa, yayin da jam'iyyarsa ta kuma samu rinjayen kujeru a majalisar dokoki.

A Afirka ta Kudu kuwa, sauyin bai tsaya ga ƙarfafar jam'iyyun adawa ba. Jam'iyyar African National Congress (ANC), wadda ta shafe tana mulkin ƙasar tun shekarar 1994, ta rasa rinjayenta a majalisar dokoki a karon farko.

A zaɓukan watan Mayun 2024 da kuma Nuwamban 2026, jam'iyyar ANC ta ci gaba da rasa ƙarfinta wajen samun ƙuri'u. A cewar hukumar zaɓen ƙasar mai zaman kanta (IEC), sakamakon zaɓen Nuwamban bana ya nuna cewa jam'iyyar ta samu kashi 31 cikin 100 na ƙuri'un da aka kaɗa, wanda shi ne mafi ƙarancin sakamakonta tun bayan hawanta kan mulki a shekarar 1994.

Hakan ya tilasta wa Shugaba Cyril Ramaphosa shiga tattaunawa da wasu jam'iyyun siyasa, ciki har da Democratic Alliance (DA), domin kafa gwamnatin haɗin kan ƙasa.

A wani nazari da Cibiyar Nordic Africa Institute ta gudanar, zaɓukan shekarar 2024 a Botswana, Ghana, Senegal da Mauritius sun kawo sauyin shugabanci, yayin da a Afirka ta Kudu aka tilasta wa jam'iyyar da ta shafe shekara 30 tana mulki haɗa kai da wasu jam'iyyun siyasa.

Jam'iyya mai mulki ta faɗi warwas a Amurka

A Amurka, zaɓen tsakiyar wa'adi da aka gudanar a ranar 3 ga Nuwamba, 2026, na cikin manyan sauye-sauyen siyasa a wannan shekarar, bayan jam'iyyar Republican ta Shugaba Donald Trump ta rasa ikon riƙe majalisun dokokin ƙasar biyu.

Jam'iyyar Democratic ta yi nasarar karɓe ikon majalisar dattawa da kuma majalisar wakilai, bayan ta kayar da 'yan takarar Republican a wasu jihohin da ake ɗauka a matsayin manyan wuraren da jam'iyyar ke da rinjaye.

A majalisar dattawa, jam'iyyar Democratic ta ƙara kujeru bakwai, yayin da ta samu ƙarin kujeru a majalisar wakilai sosai. Hakan ya ba ta damar karɓe ikon majalisun biyu tun daga watan Janairun 2027.

A Kudancin Amurka ma an samu sauye-sauye a jam'iyyun da ke kan mulki.

A Panama, jam'iyyar Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD), wadda ke mulki ƙarƙashin Shugaba Laurentino Cortizo, ta fuskanci babban koma-baya a zaɓen watan Mayun 2024.

Ɗan takararta na shugaban ƙasa, tsohon mataimakin shugaban ƙasar José Gabriel Carrizo, ya zo na shida, yayin da kujerun jam'iyyar a majalisar dokoki suka ragu daga 35 a majalisar da ta gabata zuwa 13 a sabon zaɓen.

Nasarar zaɓen shugaban ƙasa ta tafi hannun José Raúl Mulino na jam'iyyar Realizing Goals, wanda tsohon shugaban ƙasar Ricardo Martinelli ya mara wa baya.

A Uruguay ma, zaɓen shekarar 2024 ya haifar da sauyin gwamnati, bayan jam'iyyar National Party ta Shugaba Luis Lacalle Pou ta sha kaye a hannun gamayyar jam'iyyun adawa ta Broad Front.

Ɗan takarar Broad Front, Yamandú Orsi, ya lashe zagaye na biyu na zaɓen shugaban ƙasa da aka gudanar a ranar 24 ga Nuwamba, 2024, inda ya kayar da Álvaro Delgado, wanda ya kasance na kusa da shugaban ƙasar mai barin gado.

Haka kuma, Broad Front ta samu kujeru 48 daga cikin 99 na majalisar wakilai, da kuma kujeru 16 daga cikin 30 na majalisar dattawa, inda ta koma kan mulki bayan shafe shekara biyar a matsayin jam'iyyar adawa.

A Turai ma hatta jam'iyyun da suka daɗe suna mulki sun samu koma-baya

A nahiyar Turai, zaɓen Birtaniya na watan Yulin 2024 na cikin misalan da suka bayyana sauyin siyasa.

Jam'iyyar Conservative, wadda ta shafe shekara 14 tana mulki, ta sha kaye a hannun jam'iyyar Labour ƙarƙashin jagorancin Keir Starmer.

Jam'iyyar Labour ta lashe kujeru 411 daga cikin kujeru 650 na majalisar dokoki, yayin da Conservative ta samu kujeru 121 kacal, bayan da take da kujeru 365 a zaɓen shekarar 2019.

Wannan sakamako ya kawo ƙarshen mulkin Conservative, wanda ya ga shugabannin gwamnati da dama sun riƙe muƙamin firaminista, ciki har da David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss da Rishi Sunak.

An kuma samu gagarumin sauyin siyasa a Hungary a zaɓen watan Afrilun 2026.

Jam'iyyar Fidesz ta Viktor Orbán, wadda ta shafe tana mulki tun shekarar 2010, ta sha kaye a hannun jam'iyyar adawa ta Tisza, ƙarƙashin jagorancin Péter Magyar.

Tisza ta lashe kujeru 141 daga cikin 199 na majalisar dokoki, yayin da Fidesz ta samu kujeru 52 kacal.

Magyar, wanda ya taɓa kasancewa cikin jam'iyyar Fidesz kafin daga bisani ya fice daga cikinta, ya gudanar da yaƙin neman zaɓensa ne kan batutuwan cin hanci da rashawa, shugabanci nagari, ayyukan more rayuwar al'umma da kuma alaƙar Hungary da Tarayyar Turai.

Wannan nasara ta kawo ƙarshen shekaru 16 na Orbán a matsayin firaminista, tare da haifar da gagarumin sauyi a siyasar Hungary.

A Austria kuwa, zaɓen watan Satumban 2024 ya sanya jam'iyyar masu ra'ayin mazan jiya ta ÖVP a matsayi na biyu, bayan jam'iyyar masu ra'ayin dama ta FPÖ.

Sai dai sakamakon zaɓen bai sa jam'iyyar ÖVP ta fice daga gwamnati nan take ba, domin daga baya ta shiga gwamnatin haɗin gwiwa da jam'iyyun SPÖ da NEOS.

A Serbia, zaɓen gaggawa da aka gudanar a ranar 25 ga Oktoba, 2026, shi ma ya zama babban koma-baya ga jam'iyyar mai mulki ƙarƙashin Shugaba Aleksandar Vučić.

Gamayyar 'yan takarar da ƙungiyar ɗalibai ta mara wa baya ta lashe kujeru 140 daga cikin 250 na majalisar dokoki, idan aka kwatanta da kujeru 103 da jam'iyyar mai mulki ta Serbian Progressive Party ta samu.

Ƙungiyar ta samu ƙarin ƙarfi ne sakamakon zanga-zangar da aka fara bayan rushewar rufin wani tashar jirgin ƙasa a birnin Novi Sad a shekarar 2024, lamarin da ya yi sanadin mutuwar mutum 16.

Me ke haddasa faɗuwar jam'iyyun da ke mulki?

Duk da bambancin yanayin siyasa a ƙasashen, akwai wasu batutuwa da suka yi ta maimaituwa a yaƙin neman zaɓe da kuma sakamakon zaɓukan.

Ɗaya daga cikinsu shi ne halin da tattalin arziki ke ciki da kuma tsadar rayuwa. A ƙasashe da dama, 'yan ƙasa na kaɗa ƙuri'unsu ne a lokacin da suke fuskantar matsalolin rashin aikin yi, hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da ayyuka, da kuma raguwar ƙarfin samun kuɗin shiga.

Botswana na ɗaya daga cikin misalan hakan. Faduwar kasuwar lu'u-lu'u ta yi babban tasiri ga tattalin arzikin ƙasar, inda matsalolin rashin aikin yi da samar da ayyukan jin daɗin al'umma suka kasance cikin muhimman batutuwan da aka tattauna a lokacin zaɓen.

Haka kuma, Ghana ta shiga zaɓen ne tana fuskantar matsalolin tattalin arziki da suka shafi rayuwar 'yan ƙasar.

Wani dalili kuma shi ne cin hanci da rashawa da kuma rashin ɗaukar alhakin gudanar da mulki. A Serbia, alal misali, zanga-zangar da aka gudanar bayan wani hatsarin jirgin ƙasa ta rikide zuwa babbar fafutuka da ke neman shugabanni su ɗauki alhakin ayyukansu.

A Hungary ma, jam'iyyar adawa ta mayar da hankali a yaƙin neman zaɓenta kan zarge-zargen cin hanci da rashawa da kuma almundahana da dukiyar al'umma.

A wasu ƙasashen kuwa, rikice-rikicen cikin gida na jam'iyyu, shugabanci, manufofin gwamnati kamar batun shige da fice a ƙasashe irin su Amurka, ko kuma bullar sabbin jam'iyyun siyasa masu tasiri, sun taimaka wajen sauya yadda ake fafatawa a siyasa.

Jam'iyyun da ke mulki na ci gaba da fafutukar riƙe madafun iko

Duk da waɗannan misalai, ba dukkan ƙasashe ne suka bi wannan yanayi na sauke jam'iyyun da ke mulki ba.

A Tanzania, jam'iyyar CCM mai mulki, ƙarƙashin Shugaba Samia Suluhu Hassan, ta samu kashi 98 cikin 100 na ƙuri'un da aka kaɗa a zaɓen Oktoban 2025, wanda ya fuskanci tashe-tashen hankula da suka yi sanadin mutuwar mutum 518.

A Australia kuwa, jam'iyyar Labour ƙarƙashin Firaminista Anthony Albanese ta sake lashe zaɓen watan Mayun 2025, har ma ta ƙara yawan kujerunta a majalisar dokoki.

Jam'iyyar Labour ta samu kujeru 94 daga cikin 150 na majalisar, idan aka kwatanta da kujeru 77 da ta samu a zaɓen da ya gabata. Hakan ya ba ta damar ci gaba da jagorantar gwamnati.

A Kanada ma, jam'iyyar Liberal ƙarƙashin jagorancin Mark Carney ta sake lashe zaɓen watan Afrilun 2025, inda ta ci gaba da riƙe madafun iko duk da ƙalubalen siyasa da jam'iyyar ta fuskanta a lokacin mulkin Justin Trudeau.

To, shin da gaske duniya na son sauyi ne?

Hakan na iya kasancewa, amma jam'iyyun da ke mulki na ci gaba da fuskantar ƙalubale, yayin da wasu ke ƙoƙarin ganin sun ci gaba da riƙe madafun iko ta hanyar zaɓe, amfani da ƙarfin iko da kuɗi, ko kuma ta hanyar juyin mulki na ɓoye.