Young, Welsh and into politics - but with different views on independence

Cerys and Patrick have a lot in common. They're both young, Welsh, and very interested in politics.

The one thing they don't agree on is Wales' future within the United Kingdom.

A leading academic said the conversation around Welsh independence "has become normalised" amongst young people.

This week, the Plaid Cymru Welsh government set up a new body to consider the case for Welsh independence, as well as more devolution for Cardiff Bay.

For Patrick, he thinks his country is better off in the UK with more devolved powers, while Cerys believes an independent nation could offer more opportunities to people.

Nationalist party Plaid formed a government in Wales for the first after winning 46 seats during the May 2026 Senedd election.

While it hasn't called for a referendum on independence, the second line of its constitution says: "As the National Party of Wales, the party's aims shall be: to secure independence for Wales in Europe."

Pro-union party Reform UK is the second biggest in the Senedd after winning 34 seats in May's election.

Its Welsh leader Helen Jenner said voters "do not want to see Wales ripped out of the United Kingdom" and said the commission was "ridiculous".

A recent poll by Survation for the pro-independence group YesCymru suggested people under 35 in Wales were more in favour of independence than their older peers.

"People feel left behind, especially my age," said Patrick, a 20-year-old student from Newport.

He added that he can understand why people are "energised and enthusiastic" about independence because of issues such as "student loans, the cost of living, the geopolitical scene".

But he said: "As of right now, I just do not think there is a case for it."

However, Patrick, said he would support further devolved powers for Wales within the union.

He said that "practical elements" such as whether there would be a border between Wales and England remain answered questions for him.

For Cerys, learning to speak Welsh as an adult and broadening her understanding of history led to a "realisation" that Wales "in reality deserved a lot better than we had been given in the past and in the present".

"I think if we were independent, we could offer people more opportunity here," said the 35-year-old from Bridgend.

She added she'd like Wales to have further powers over policing and justice - a policy area currently controlled by Westminster.

"People seem to be kind of dangling the carrot of more devolution and never actually giving it to us," she said.

"More powers would be great but I will believe in those powers when I see them and until then, I think our best option is independence."

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has previously said he is open to the idea of giving the Welsh government control of policing in Wales.

A leading academic from Cardiff University said "it's staggeringly important" that "young people are a majority in favour of independence".

"They see nothing strange or impossible about Wales becoming independent in the future," said Professor Laura McAllister, from the Welsh Governance Centre.

She said that there is "great scepticism" around the topic when you look at the opinions of people aged over 65, adding there is a "real demographic schism".

"There's going to need to be something much closer to support at least half the population supporting independence before there is any chance of a referendum being won," McAllister believes.

She added nobody "can afford to be complacent about the future of the union" because "the concept of the United Kingdom has no God-given right to survive in its current form".

"What we've seen in politics in recent times is that the potential for change is intrinsic to everything that happened," she said.

In 2024, McAllister co-chaired a commission which concluded Wales leaving the United Kingdom is a "viable" option.

With polling suggesting between 20% and 30% of people in Wales would be in favour of independence, academics have compared the current situation to Scotland in the years leading up to the independence referendum in 2014.

"In some ways the situation here looks similar to Scotland in 2007," said Dr Jac Larner, a pollster and political analyst from Cardiff University, reflecting on when the Scottish National Party [SNP] took power.

"You might think now we have a party like Plaid Cymru, there's this inevitable march to this endless 50-50 that you see in Scotland, right?

"What's different here [in Wales] is that we still have a lot more hostility to the idea of devolution.

"You have about a third who want to get rid of the devolution altogether, maybe just less than a third who want independence."

Reform, a pro-union party, were the second biggest party in the 2026 Senedd Election, forming the official opposition.

First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth said: "I have a vision for Wales, I support an independent Wales."

He said it was about "improving a lot of the people of Wales, tackling injustices, tackling unfairness, tackling inequalities, creating prosperity".

He added: "In the here and now, I deal with those issues dealing with the UK Prime Minister."

In October, the first ministers of Wales and Scotland met with UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham in Glasgow for the National Economic Council where devolution and funding were discussed.

Rhun ap Iorwerth said there was "a new understanding of the injustice of rail expenditure in Wales" from Burnham, as well as "a realisation that this this hasn't been given enough attention politically by UK governments in the past".

Following the 2026 Autumn Budget, ap Iorwerth told BBC Wales there were "paltry sums of money coming on rail, when they've said there's £14bn on the way" and a "real terms cut in the money we have to spend on public services".

A UK government spokesman said: "The prime minister passionately believes in our union and is optimistic about the future of the United Kingdom.

"Our position on referendums is clear - the prime minister is focused on practical solutions to help people with the cost of living and make a positive difference in people's everyday lives, not constitutional questions.

"Through the convening power of No10 North, the prime minister will build a constructive working relationship with each devolved government to explore how we can together contribute to regional empowerment, reindustrialisation and achieving good growth in every postcode."